# Patch Notes #010: Gun Violence / Public Safety Evidence Matrix

Version: v0.1 public pre-memo matrix
Date: 2026-07-03
Status: Source-anchor matrix for reviewer critique. This is not a final evidence review.

## Working Standard

Every claim should specify which outcome it addresses: suicide, community homicide, intimate-partner violence, accidental injury, police shooting, mass shooting, school threat, trafficking, illegal possession, or lawful ownership. "Gun violence" is too broad to be a usable evidence category by itself.

| Claim | Evidence Strength | Initial Source Anchor | Reviewer Ask |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Firearm deaths are not one phenomenon; suicide and homicide require different prevention strategies. | Strong for death-category split | CDC/NCHS firearm mortality data, WISQARS | Which baseline chart should lead? |
| Public attention often focuses on mass shootings, while the largest death categories are suicide and homicide. | Strong directionally; definitions vary for mass shootings | CDC/NCHS, FBI crime data, CRS/NIJ definitions | How should the paper avoid minimizing mass shootings while keeping scale honest? |
| Community violence intervention can reduce shootings in some settings, but program quality, trust, and local implementation determine results. | Moderate; evidence varies by model and city | DOJ/OJP CVI materials, NIJ, evaluations | Which models are credible and which claims are overbuilt? |
| Safe-storage and lethal-means safety are central for youth injury and suicide prevention. | Moderate/strong | CDC, RAND gun policy review, public-health research | How should this be framed without culture-war or individualized safety advice? |
| Domestic violence firearm restrictions may reduce intimate-partner homicide risk, but enforcement and due process matter. | Moderate/strong | RAND review, DOJ/NIJ, Rahimi | Where are law and implementation strongest? |
| Extreme risk protection orders may help prevent some suicides or attacks, but require evidence standards, due process, and awareness. | Moderate and developing | RAND review, state evaluations, NIJ/academic studies | What safeguards are nonnegotiable? |
| Gun policy evidence is uneven; many popular policies have limited or mixed evidence. | Strong as evidence-review finding | RAND Science of Gun Policy | Which claims are ready for policy versus still uncertain? |
| Enforcement-heavy strategies can reduce violence or worsen trust depending on targeting, legality, and community legitimacy. | Moderate; context-specific | NIJ, policing/community violence literature, local evaluations | What design avoids backlash and rights harms? |
| Constitutional constraints shape feasible policy, especially after Bruen and Rahimi. | Strong as legal constraint; doctrine evolving | Supreme Court cases, legal scholarship | Which proposals are legally plausible? |
| A credible public-safety package likely combines prevention, targeted enforcement, legal safeguards, community trust, suicide prevention, and rights-respecting ownership norms. | Synthesis hypothesis | Cross-source synthesis | Where is this package too broad or internally inconsistent? |

## Research Gaps Before Memo v0.2

1. Current firearm mortality by category: suicide, homicide, unintentional, legal intervention, undetermined.
2. Nonfatal firearm injury data quality and limitations.
3. Community violence intervention evidence by model: street outreach, focused deterrence, hospital-based violence intervention, group violence intervention.
4. Domestic violence firearm restriction evidence and implementation gaps.
5. ERPO evidence by suicide, threats, and mass-violence prevention.
6. Safe-storage and lethal-means counseling evidence, especially for youth and suicide prevention.
7. Gun trafficking, illegal possession, and theft data at a non-operational policy level.
8. Constitutional constraints after Bruen and Rahimi, especially for permitting, prohibited persons, domestic-violence restrictions, and sensitive places.