# Patch Notes #007: Immigration Evidence Matrix

Version: v0.1 public pre-memo matrix
Date: 2026-07-03
Status: Source-anchor matrix for reviewer critique. This is not a final evidence review.

## Working Standard

Every major claim should separate legal category, administrative process, geography, and time period. Immigration claims are especially easy to flatten; a single number should not stand in for the whole system.

| Claim | Evidence Strength | Initial Source Anchor | Reviewer Ask |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Immigration is not one flow; lawful permanent residence, temporary visas, refugees, asylum, parole, unauthorized entry, and overstays operate through different rules and agencies. | Strong as institutional description | DHS/OHSS, USCIS, CBP | Where do public explanations collapse categories? |
| Border encounters are volatile and do not equal net migration or successful long-term settlement. | Strong for encounter counts; interpretation requires caution | CBP encounters and enforcement statistics | How should encounters be explained without minimizing or exaggerating them? |
| Immigration court and asylum backlogs are central system constraints, not side details. | Strong directionally; exact backlog source should be cross-checked | DOJ EOIR, USCIS asylum data, TRAC as secondary tracker | Which backlog measures are most defensible? |
| Legal pathways are slow, capped, fragmented, and often mismatched with labor demand, family demand, humanitarian need, and local capacity. | Moderate/strong; category-specific detail needed | DHS Yearbook, USCIS, State Department, CBO/MPI | Where is mismatch most measurable? |
| Immigration can produce economic gains while creating distributional and local-capacity pressures. | Strong as broad consensus; contested by group and place | CBO, labor economics literature, state/local fiscal studies | How should national gains be split from local or sectoral burdens? |
| Employer enforcement and worker protections matter because unauthorized status can create exploitable labor conditions. | Moderate/strong; needs source pass | Department of Labor, immigration labor research, worker-advocacy evidence | Which reforms reduce exploitation without creating chaos? |
| Freer movement would still require administration: identity, screening, lawful work authorization, adjudication capacity, local funding, employer rules, and political legitimacy. | Synthesis hypothesis | Cross-source synthesis | What administrative requirements are nonnegotiable at a systems level? |
| A credible system likely needs faster lawful channels and faster, fairer negative decisions; legitimacy depends on both. | Synthesis hypothesis | EOIR/USCIS/CBP data plus legal review | Where does speed risk due process? |

## Research Gaps Before Memo v0.2

1. Official current counts by category: LPR, temporary visas, refugees, asylum, parole, encounters, removals, overstays.
2. Immigration court versus USCIS asylum backlog: definitions, overlap, and time-to-decision.
3. Labor-market effects by skill level, sector, geography, and legal status.
4. Fiscal effects by federal, state, and local level.
5. Border community costs and operational realities.
6. Local-service impacts: schools, hospitals, housing, shelters, legal aid, and city budgets.
7. Comparative models: points systems, seasonal labor, humanitarian corridors, regularization, and employer enforcement.
8. High-level freer-movement stress test: what would have to be true administratively and politically for it to work?